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Prediction for CME (2023-07-14T19:10:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-07-14T19:10Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25976/-1
CME Note: CME is faint and difficult to observe, seen as a partial halo to the S/SW in SOHO LASCO C2 and for few frames in STEREO A COR2 preceding data gap. The source is likely an eruption and subsequent C8.8 flare from AR 3370 (near S18E14) starting around 2023-07-14T18:35Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Noticeably deflected W. Arrival signature: Sharp increase in B-total from 7nT to 13nT. Sudden fluctuation in B-field components and increases in solar wind speed from ~350km/s to ~450km/s, in temperature and gradual increase in density. From Tarik Salman, LASSOS: definite shock arrival ~2023-07-16T18:35Z and another similar and more prominent feature in the plasma data around 2023-07-17T01:26Z (speed jump of 200 km/s) but nothing in the magnetic field. It is possible to have an admixture of HSS as well late on 2023-07-17.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-07-16T18:35Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-18T12:00Z (-14.0h, +14.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 65.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2023 Jul 16 1245 UTC
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 30716
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 16 Jul 2023, 1244UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given) PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Jul 2023  10CM FLUX: 177 / AP: 006 PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Jul 2023  10CM FLUX: 175 / AP: 005 PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Jul 2023  10CM FLUX: 172 / AP: 011

 

... Coronal mass ejections: The faint partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery at 19:10 UTC on July 14th and related to an on-disc filament eruption and C8.8 flaring from plage region NOAA AR 3370 remains difficult to analyse due to lack of STEREO COR2 data and overlapping surrounding events. A glancing blow from it could arrive at Earth on July 18th. ...

Lead Time: 5.63 hour(s)
Difference: -41.42 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) on 2023-07-16T12:57Z

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